:          OFFICE OF SPECIAL AFFAIRS NETWORK ORDER
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: OSA NW ORDER 35                               7 April 1988
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:                        _Confidential_
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:          _INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATIONS AND PREDICTIONS_
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:        (Originally written by LRH on 22 August 1973.
:         Issued as an OSA NW Order on 7 April 1988.)

The original date of issue is during the era of the Guardian office (before the Snow White Trials in 1979). This proves that Hubbard dictated Guardian Office orders, despite Scientology's claims to its members (and the U.S. Government) that Suppressive Persons [radicals outside of Scientology's control] infiltrated the Guardian Office and were responsible for Snow White.

Miscavige, his lawyers, and his Public Relations representatives said that all Guardian Orders were "cancelled", so Scientology simply reissued many as OSA NW Orders. This way, they could keep "tech" by renaming it something else to go with the illusion that the criminals (GO staff) were ousted and the "off-source tech" issues (Guardian Orders) were cancelled. In parallel, Miscavige renamed the GO the "Office of Special Affairs". It's semantics, that's all -- an "acceptable" truth.

The OSA issue date is after Hubbard's death in 1984. This proves that Scientology did not disband the Guardian's Office, despite Scientology's claims to the contrary. In reality, both GO and OSA are the same Scientology entity, internally named Division 20.

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:      When an agent or operative turns in summaries or
: documents, these are poured into the main intelligence files
: and any "special bank" that is of current interest.

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Hubbard's use of agent or operative indicates an intelligence operation being run under the guise of religion by the "Church" of Scientology. These Scientology operatives collect information, just like other intelligence organizations. This information is then filed for future investigations.

Hubbard, consistent with the era this was written, could not foresee that computers would become ubiquitous. Here, Hubbard describes a paper-based cross-referencing system "without the bother of electronic liabilities". The modern Internet search engine does exactly what Hubbard is instructing his intelligence operatives to do. One wonders if the Office of Special Affairs has moved forward with INCOMM, Scientology's computer-based communications network, or whether Scientology is trapped by the Neo-Luddite thinking in Hubbard's writings.

Hubbard recognizes that good intelligence operations depend on having the right amount of information appropriate to the subject. Of course, it's difficult to know, when one is on a fishing expedition, which fish will be the most valuable. Scientology, under the guise of the Freedom of Information Act, launched an information retrieval attack against the US Government in an effort to "cleanse" the files, find hidden "crimes" of government officials, or obtain intelligence information.

While Hubbard calls the information obtained by cross-referencing "new data", from the standpoint of information theory the amount of information is still the same. Hubbard recognizes that having the information arranged in the correct form is as important as possessing the information itself. If only Hubbard could see the World Wide Web - the problem has only gotten worse with the information explosion in cyberspace.

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Hubbard segues into the next step after gathering and cross-indexing. As will be seen, ESTIMATION refers to noticing trends in the incoming data stream, while PREDICTION refers using the trends to formulate a plan of action.

"HCO PL 25 April 1968" refers to Scientology "scripture" which directs the actions of Scientologists. "HCO" referrs to the Hubbard Communications Office. A "PL" is a Policy Letter of the "Church" of Scientology. Thus, this reference further shows that Scientology, as a matter of policy, engages in espionage.

Like modern computer-based search engines, a "special bank" is simply a list of "hits" on certain words. The archaic system that Hubbard proposes must be constantly maintained by people to keep it up to date. While this would have an excessive labor cost in a commercial venture, the Office of Special Affairs is staffed by Sea Org staff Scientologists who have signed a "billion year contract". Therefore, labor cost is apparently not a consideration for Scientology.

Hubbard's style frequently devolves to the use of one-sentence paragraphs. It is unclear whether this is done for literary effect, whether Hubbard was unable to organize his thoughts into flowing paragraphs, or whether Hubbard simply couldn't be bothered with organization. Given his early career as a penny-a-word writer, perhaps Hubbard was loathe to rework anything because it cut into his income.

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:      This is done by examining the main files and locating the
: fattest folders related to any one group or subject.  Let us
: say one is just now interested in dog catchers.  The
: cross-file index, if properly prepared, will show that several
: dog catchers are in the main files.  One simply pulls their

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Rather than "dog catchers", substitute "Cult Awareness Network" or "the German Government" to realize the full impact of Hubbard's instructions.

Again, this crude system of Hubbard's is completely superceded by modern computer search engines. The instructions regarding "dummy" files with pointers to the main file typically cause an administrative nightmare. Several ex-Scientology admin staff have commented that it is sometimes impossible to find a particular file. After searching for hours, the file is found in a room with file folders stacked three feet high, apparently part of an effort to "ESTIMATE", as Hubbard puts it. Perhaps the problem lies in the fact that Hubbard never tells OSA to put the files back.   :)

From this passage, it is clear that "ESTIMATION" is simply the act of correlating the incoming data stream. The problem with this approach is that it depends on what Scientology field operatives are investigating. If Hubbard told them to investigate a particular enemy of Scientology, then the Section Head is going to find a lot of correlation. It is a self-fulfilling prophesy.

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:      No file or computer can actually THINK.  It can however
: be so arranged that QUANTITY begins to show up around certain

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Again, the problem with a quantity-based estimation is that it depends on the number of field operatives collecting information. For example, given the anti-psychiatry indoctrination of Hubbard's followers, Scientology would collect more than a representative sample of information on psychiatrists. The estimation would show a psychiatric conspiracy against Scientology, which would result in a plan of action against psychiatrists, which would lead to further investigating. The positive feedback loop caused Hubbard to look for The WHO (the responsible person, not the rock band) where none existed.

While Hubbard is correct in saying that computers cannot actually think, he underestimates their power in automating many of the tasks that are outlined here. Scientology could use a computer to replicate data, follow pointers, and search documents for keywords - precisely what Hubbard describes here. Due to Hubbard's limited understanding of computers, the paper and bureaucratic jungle at Scientology Orgs became the stuff of legend.

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Hubbard's "Filing System from Hell" requires a Herculean effort to maintain. Hubbard was fond of setting impossible goals (a Goals-Problem Mass? :) for Scientology. When his staff was unable to attain the goal, he would then fly into a rage, looking for the Suppressive who prevented the goal from being attained. Ex-Scientology staff's personal accounts reveal people being assigned lower Ethics Conditions or being sent to the RPF, Scientology's gulag because they were unable to perform up to Hubbard's unrealistic expectations.

Given that insufficient clerical staff virtually guarantees that the "special bank"s is not up-to-date, the possibility arises that OSA quite likely incorrectly ESTIMATEs (analyzes) and incorrectly PREDICTs (takes action against) the enemies of Scientology. The result is that the organization of Scientology behaves like a paranoid schizophrenic.

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Hubbard calls this "adding mass" (reality) to a concept. Here, he describes how the Filing System from Hell could work, but again misses an important intelligence-gathering maxim: you find what you are looking for. Joe McCarthy expected to find Communists behind every tree, and that is exactly what he found.

Hubbard suspected many conspiracies against Scientology. In fact, the Guardian's Office arose from Hubbard's paranoia. Here he describes how, with a little work, one could find a Communist (or dogcatcher) behind every tree. It is common for GO/OSA to "follow the money", or find out who is paying a suspected Suppressive, just as described above.

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:      We can now PREDICT.
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:      If we are out to handle the dog catchers we will have to
: work on Mrs.  Snap to get her to reform.

Substitute "Internet critics" for "dog catchers" and "Bob Minton" for "Mrs. Snap", and you have the situation as of January 1998. OSA is currently "working on" Bob Minton, getting him to "reform", by leafletting his neighborhood with "Face of Bigotry" flyers, tailing his children, deposing him in far-away court cases, and possibly leaving dead animals on his doorstep.

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Hubbard was convinced that enemies of Scientology were criminals. Hubbard is calling dog catchers "criminals", indicating that "dog catchers" in this analogy probably represent "enemies of Scientology".

Scientology uses both "ethics" (its own term) and the legal system to persuade its enemies to give up their "careers of crime".

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: being investigated.  They consume countless hours of "law
: enforcement" policeman and judge time which could be saved if
: they adopted a more streamlined system which, amongst other
: things, weeded out false reports or vexatious complaints with
: no foundation in fact.

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The "Data Series" is a collection of Hubbard writings which instruct Scientology adherents how to evaluate data, or how to think.

Note again Hubbard's assertion that law enforcement files are full of "false reports" and "vexatious complaints with no foundation in fact". This is the motivation for Operation Snow White, Scientology's attempt to "cleanse" US Government files of "false reports" against Scientology.

Hubbard's comments on the "crude" and "suppressive" dossier system used by police uses elements from Black Propaganda . By describing the police to be "crude" and "suppressive", Hubbard hopes to classify the police (and Government) in the minds of Scientologists, thereby creating Suppressive Persons where none existed before.

When considering Hubbard's criticism of law enforcement data filing system, one must consider whose system is more labor-intensive. When law enforcement computerized their "dossiers", they realized the benefits that Hubbard only imagined were available from his Filing System from Hell.

Hubbard speaks of weeding out "vexatious complaints". Scientology uses this tactic of generating false or anonymous complaints against a target from multiple sources. For example, Robert Vaughn Young's feline sanctuary was attacked by anonymous complaints to the health department, humane society, psychiatric services (!), and the zoning commission. Thus, Scientology is the pot calling the kettle black when it comes to complaining about "vexatious complaints with no foundation in fact" being accepted into government files.

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Hubbard often used a style of single-sentence paragraphs. Perhaps Hubbard used this style to e-m-p-h-a-s-i-z-e   e-v-e-r-y   t-h-o-u-g-h-t. Perhaps Hubbard, in a holdover from his previous career as a penny-a-word sci-fi writer, couldn't be bothered to back up and edit for readability. Another possibility is that Hubbard had difficulty grouping his thoughts into a coherent paragraph that didn't meander like a small stream on a flat plain - putting one sentence in each paragraph solves this coherency problem. In this barrage of single-sentence paragraphs, Hubbard enumerates the possibilities of his filing system. Of course, all of these possibilities are trivial with a computer search system.

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"Data Series outpoints" apparently refers to mistakes made in the collecting and filing data. "outpoint" is a Hubbardism for "mistake". Hubbard, never feeling a need to be constrained by conventional English, often invented new words. The inability to communicate in a commonly-accepted way is one of the symptoms of schizophrenia. Another possibility is that Hubbard used these new words as a means of thought-stopping, similar to the loaded language of Orwell's 1984.

It should be noted that Hubbard's filing system does indeed hit innocent bystanders. In the case of Scientology's attack on anonymous a.r.s. poster Rogue Agent, several innocent bystanders were harrassed before Rogue shuddered into silence in an effort to shield them.

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It is official Scientology policy to:

1. to maintain cross-referenced files on "enemies" of Scientology.
2. "estimate" [cross index] their "enemies" from these lists.
3. "predict" the WHO, based on these lists.
4. "program" a campaign to neutralize the enemy.

Some "church", eh?

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This line describes the Scientology management hierarchy:

1. L. Ron Hubbard dictates to the Church of Scientology International.
2. CSI dictates to Jane Kember (?) [Worldwide Guardian or head of G.O.].
3. jk dictates to "ta", who is probably the person charged with typesetting this OSA Network Order. Note: typographical errors appear in the original.

Hubbard is clearly controlling the actions of the Guardian's Office, despite Scientology's claims to the contrary during the Snow White trial. Hubbard also controlled the Office of Special Affairs.

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Hubbard, in an effort to bolster his perceived intellect, liked to include lame references such as this one. According to Study Tech, Scientologists must look up a word in the dictionary if they do not understand it. In this case, "Cheka" would not be known to most G.O., so this reference saves time.